The facts are no longer in dispute: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve just hit its lowest level since November 1982. National diesel prices hit a record $6.45 a gallon after a major Midwest refinery went dark. Airlines are cutting flights because jet fuel costs have made routes unprofitable. This guide takes those verified numbers and builds an honest, clearly-labeled 12-month cost projection for what importers actually pay: last-mile trucking surcharges and air freight rates.
The Verified Starting Point
Projecting Last-Mile Trucking Surcharges — Two Forces, Not One
Trucking costs aren't rising for one reason — they're rising for two separate, largely independent forces that stack on top of each other.
Force #1 — Fuel Surcharges (Diesel-Driven)
Carriers tie FSC directly to the DOE's weekly diesel price: FSC = (Current Diesel Price − Contract Base Price) ÷ Assumed MPG. In late March 2026, at $5.35–5.60/gallon diesel, Old Dominion's published LTL surcharge was already over 41%. Diesel today is $0.85–$1.10/gallon higher than that.
Force #2 — Base Linehaul Rate Inflation (Capacity-Driven)
ACT Research's July 2026 Freight Forecast shows truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, up 43% year-over-year in June, with DAT spot rates crossing 50% year-over-year by early July. Contract rates rose 13% YoY to $2.41/mile. This is driven by a driver-supply squeeze — FMCSA enforcement, new carrier registration rules, ELD enforcement, CDL mill closures, immigration enforcement, and the Supreme Court's Montgomery ruling on broker liability — entirely separate from diesel prices.
Bars show Accrue's modeled fuel surcharge range; dots show the qualitative base-rate trend per ACT Research / Arrive Logistics. Not a guaranteed forecast.
Bottom line: even if diesel falls as the EIA forecasts, base linehaul rates are not expected to fall with it. Plan door-to-door trucking costs as structurally higher than 2025, not just temporarily elevated.
Projecting Air Freight Rates — What Analysts Actually Forecast
Long-term contract rates expected to fall 5–10% for the full year.
Now expected to rise 5–15% — driven by the Middle East conflict's February capacity shock, which removed ~12% of global air cargo capacity overnight.
A genuinely useful, current signal: Xeneta's September commentary notes "little appetite for peak season charters" this year — the usual Q4 premium surge isn't materializing, supporting continued gradual easing into the winter peak season.
Source: Xeneta corridor data, week of June 1-7, 2026, vs. late-February 2026 pre-conflict baseline.
The deceleration trend, four months running: global spot rates cooled from 41% YoY (May) to 38% (June) to 28% (July) to 24% (August), settling at $3.13/kg.
| Period | Rate Trend | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Continued gradual easing, no major peak-season spike | Xeneta's "little appetite for peak charters," 4 months of cooling YoY growth |
| Full-Year 2026 | +5% to +15% (contract rates) | Xeneta's official, published forecast |
| Q1–Q2 2027 | Continued gradual softening | Contingent on Middle East capacity normalizing, per EIA's Q2 2027 recovery assumption |
The Air Freight Fuel Surcharge, Specifically
Tied to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Index. Most carriers use a dual-speed mechanism — monthly resets under normal conditions, but an "exceptional weekly mechanism" once the IATA Jet Fuel Price exceeds $100.99/barrel.
Jet fuel has run $151-181/barrel over recent weeks — deep inside the weekly-reset regime. Surcharges have been resetting every week, not monthly, for months. Any quote received today should be treated as valid for days, not weeks.
Long-haul cargo fuel surcharge, per kg. Source: DHL Aviation Cargo published rate table. One carrier's real figures — not a universal industry rate.
Context: jet fuel represents 25-30% of total airline operating costs (IATA) — a major line item, not a minor pass-through. Typical industry-wide surcharge range: $0.50-$2.00/kg on top of the base rate.
| Period | Jet Fuel Trend | Modeled Surcharge | Reset Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Elevated, tracking EIA's diesel-correlated forecast | High end of current range | Weekly |
| Q1 2027 | Gradual easing begins | Moderating from Q4 peak | Weekly to monthly if under $100.99 |
| Q2–Q3 2027 | Continued gradual decline | Lower, but above pre-2026 levels | Likely monthly |
What This Means for Your Shipments
- Plan door-to-door trucking costs as structurally higher than 2025, not temporarily elevated — capacity-driven base rates aren't expected to fall even as fuel surcharges ease
- Treat any air freight quote as valid for days, not weeks, while the exceptional weekly fuel surcharge mechanism remains active
- Expect elevated combined freight costs through at least Q1 2027, with gradual relief most likely starting Q2 2027 — assuming no further escalation
- Build these projections into freight budgets now rather than reacting to invoices as they arrive
Need help budgeting your freight costs for the year ahead?
Accrue can help you plan shipment timing and mode selection around current and projected surcharges.
Talk to Us →Frequently Asked Questions
How is a trucking fuel surcharge calculated?
Most LTL and truckload carriers calculate fuel surcharges using the formula: (Current DOE Diesel Price minus Contract Base Price) divided by Assumed Miles Per Gallon. The U.S. Department of Energy publishes the national average diesel price weekly, and carriers recalculate the surcharge percentage or per-mile rate each week based on that published number.
Why are trucking rates rising even when diesel prices fall?
Trucking costs are driven by two separate forces: fuel surcharges tied to diesel prices, and base linehaul rates driven by carrier capacity. A driver supply shortage caused by regulatory enforcement, carrier registration rules, and reduced CDL mill activity has pushed base truckload rates up independent of fuel costs. Even if diesel prices decline, base rates are not expected to fall with them.
How is an air freight fuel surcharge calculated?
Air cargo fuel surcharges are tied to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Index, published weekly. Most carriers use a dual-speed mechanism: a standard monthly reset under normal conditions, and an exceptional weekly reset once the IATA Jet Fuel Price exceeds $100.99 per barrel, which keeps surcharges more responsive during periods of high fuel volatility.
What does the exceptional weekly fuel surcharge mechanism mean for shippers?
When jet fuel prices exceed the $100.99 per barrel threshold, air cargo fuel surcharges reset weekly instead of monthly. This means an air freight quote may only remain valid for a matter of days rather than weeks, and shippers should confirm surcharge validity windows before booking during periods of high fuel prices.
When are freight costs expected to ease over the next 12 months?
Based on current government and industry forecasts, truckload spot rates are expected to crest around January 2027 before easing modestly, while air freight rates are expected to continue a gradual softening trend into 2027, contingent on Middle East shipping capacity normalizing. Neither forecast points to a full return to pre-2026 pricing levels within the next year.